Krungsri Highlights AI and New CAPEX Cycle Themes as Thai Bourse Heads for ‘Early Bull’ Market

Mr. Koraphat Vorachet, Assistant Director and Division Head of Research at Krungsri Securities (KSS), stated in the “Kaohoon” program on July 16, 2026, that foreign fund flows into the Thai stock market have played a significant role in shaping market structure. Since the start of the year, the most heavily purchased stocks by foreign investors are PTT with over THB 28 billion, PTTEP with over THB 23 billion, and KBANK with over THB 21.3 billion. While the energy sector has historically been key beneficiaries, this year has seen funds flowing into banking stocks, a sign of improving confidence in Thailand’s domestic economy and brighter corporate earnings prospects. A sole focus on energy stocks would suggest a fragile structure, he added, given their exposure to international factors such as oil prices and refining margins. The growing inclusion of banks, however, is seen as a bullish indicator for the broader Thai market. Analysts have also upgraded profit forecasts for both energy and banking, with the former buoyed by tightening refinery and petrochemical supply due to production cuts in China and slower capacity expansion. Mr. Koraphat estimates the supply squeeze will benefit the industry for at least 1.5 to possibly 3 years, due to war-related capacity disruptions and an expected demand uptick as global conflicts subside. Although product spreads may remain volatile in the first half, he sees a path to clearer refinery and petrochemical earnings recovery beginning in 3Q26. PTT, which plays across the entire energy value chain, is specifically highlighted for its undervalued share price and recent technical breakout above long-held resistance at THB 38.25—a move that could further attract foreign interest. Additionally, the Thai market’s structure is improving, with gains now spreading to AI infrastructure and other growth sectors. Roughly 71% of SET-listed stocks trade above their 200-day moving averages, suggesting the uptrend is increasingly broad-based. Should there be no major negative shocks, sector rotation and continued inflows could propel the index upward, with Q2 results set to clarify which companies withstand energy cost pressures and which are poised for recovery in Q3. On the macro side, Mr. Koraphat identifies a new CAPEX cycle for Asia, the strongest since 2002, driven by major investments in infrastructure, data centers, AI, energy, and new industries—a trend likely to support capital flows into emerging Asian assets, including Thailand, through 2030. Amidst a shift from globalized supply chains to a more fragmented global economy, investors are placing new weight on regulatory flexibility and resource availability. Mr. Koraphat assesses that the Thai stock market is in the initial stages of a new bull market or “Early Bull.” Given last year’s attractive entry point, now is the time for selective buying, rather than aiming for distant targets. For stock selection, the analyst advocated a “Selective Buy” strategy focusing on companies in AI infrastructure and the Thai CAPEX theme. His top picks are: Banking: KBANK and KTB , with increasing wealth management revenues and advanced data analytics Power: GULF and GPSC , benefiting from higher electricity demand from the tech sector ICT: ADVANC , for its central role in AI and digital growth Industrial Estates: AMATA , to capitalize on FDI and production relocations Energy: PTT , for diversified recovery and supply tightness He also highlights sectors poised for the next leg of recovery—tourism, hospitals, finance, and retail—where current share prices already reflect much of the recent earnings softness. Notable picks in these segments include AOT , BH , CENTEL , AWC , and KTB. If the SET index can sustainably move above 1,650 points, it could reduce selling pressure from legacy LTF redemptions and pave the way for KSS’s target of 1,680. This base-case view is contingent on effective government investment policies and the attraction of new FDI, with upside potential if execution exceeds expectations.