Kiatnakin Expects Thai Tourism Sector to Gear Up for Strong 2H26 Recovery

Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) hosted its latest hospitality forum, gathering insights from 11 listed companies in Thailand’s tourism sector, including hotel operators, airlines, and aviation providers. The forum highlighted optimism among hospitality leaders regarding the outlook for the second half of 2026, despite recent disruptions from the Middle East conflict. Hotel operators expressed confidence in continued revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth across most markets. Asset World Corporation PCL (SET: AWC ) anticipates mid-single-digit RevPAR growth in the second quarter and high-single-digit growth for the full year, driven by robust demand from U.S. and Chinese travelers. Forward bookings for the third and fourth quarters also show double-digit increases. Central Plaza Hotel PCL (SET: CENTEL ) reported strong forward bookings in Thailand, particularly in Phuket and Samui, while The Erawan Group PCL (SET: ERW ) expects further RevPAR growth for its non-Hop Inn properties despite ongoing renovations. Minor International PCL (SET: MINT ) noted consistent RevPAR trends in both Europe and Thailand and remains positive on future bookings, despite a trend toward shorter booking windows. The Maldives market is also showing signs of recovery, with CENTEL’s existing property seeing double-digit RevPAR growth and improved occupancy at its new resort. MINT expects Maldives operations to pick up after softer results earlier in the year, aided by lower fuel costs and a recovery in tourist arrivals. Airlines and aviation companies reported an uptick in passenger volumes following the easing of Middle East tensions. Thai Airways International PCL (SET: THAI ) acknowledged that forward bookings remained subdued in June but expects improvements in passenger numbers after slashing fares to stimulate demand, although ticket prices still surpass last year’s rates due to elevated jet fuel costs. Asia Aviation PCL (SET: AAV ) also plans to stick to rational pricing, with domestic fares remaining above pre- and post-pandemic levels. Samart Aviation Solutions PCL (SET: SAV ) saw a recovery in overflight traffic, with early July figures exceeding last year’s daily averages. KKPS maintains a positive outlook for the sector. Thai hotels under coverage are trading at 23x of the 2026 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, and airlines are trading at 13x 2026 P/E. Despite these improvements, most tourism stock prices remain below their pre-Middle East conflict levels, presenting investors with a potential opportunity as the industry rebounds in the latter half of 2026.